John Wong

Tax Policy Center Tariff Tracker

TPC's latest analysis on tariffs visualized.

TPC: New Section 232 Tariffs Lower Some Rates, But Add New Complexity

I decode key features of Section 232 tariffs on metals and pharmaceuticals.

TPC: How Do Tariffs Flow Through Supply Chains?

I explain how TPC applies input-output analysis for tariffs.

Modeling Tariff Complexity: How TPC Tracks Billions of Policy Combinations

I introduce TPC's Tariff Rules Engine and its capabilities.

Brookings: Recent Tariffs Threaten Residential Construction

Using TPC's tariff supply chain model, we calculated that tariffs will add roughly $30 billion to the costs of investment in residential structures.

WITH: Elena Patel, Robert McClelland

How the Supreme Court’s IEEPA Ruling and New Section 122 Tariffs Reshape Costs Across Industries

We show how tariffs affect the cost of various goods.

WITH: Thomas Brosy, Robert McClelland

TPC: Supreme Court Ruling on IEEPA Tariffs Could Ease Cost Burdens, But Less Than You Might Think

We use the tariff rules engine to analyze the marginal impact of IEEPA tariffs and simulate new tariffs.

WITH: Robert McClelland

Stronger Start For Working Families Act Would Help Low-Income Workers

The law ignores a family's first $2500 of earnings when calculating their Child Tax Credit, leaving those with low annual income (like part-time workers) with an unusually small credit. We analyzed a bill to remove this quirk.

WITH: Elaine Maag

TPC Shows Who Pays Trump Administration's Tariffs And Who Could Gain From $2,000 Dividend

The distribution of tariff burden, generated with our latest tariff rules engine and input-output model.

WITH: Janet Holtzblatt, Robert McClelland

TPC: Tariffs On Movies Would Face Very High Hurdles

We explore the difficulties of levying import duties on intellectual property.

WITH: Janet Holtzblatt, Robert McClelland

TPC: Too Many Goods Are About To Face Historically High Tariffs

Tariffs are typically levied on countries. But consumers buy goods by category, not by country of origin. In my first piece for Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, we use our revamped tariff model to translate the effects of country-based tariffs on major consumer goods.

WITH: Robert McClelland

PPI: Most U.S. Government Borrowing Just Pays for More Borrowing

Nearly 40 percent of U.S. government debt today was issued just to cover interest on previous debt, and this problem is poised to worsen as recent borrowing accrues interest and Congress further cuts revenue.

Offsetting Families' Tariff Burdens Through Refundable Tax Credits

Since the US Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) did not grant the president tariff authority, the federal government has repaid about $21 billion (as of May 31) to the businesses that paid those levies. But economists generally view tariffs as burdening all US residents, not just importers, through increases in prices and reductions in income. We examine four options for one-time tariff credits that would offset at least some of the IEEPA burden.

WITH: Janet Holtzblatt, Robert McClelland

The Problem With Historical Instrumental Variables

Many instrumental variable papers that identify treatment variations over long time periods are misspecified. I use difference equations, VAR representations, and Monte Carlo simulations to demonstrate this. I also propose a remedial two-stage-least-squares specification to correct for bias.

The Causal Effect of Regulation on Economic Growth

A paper on using state age to estimate how increasing regulation causally affects growth. This project leverages the QuantGov project's State RegData.

WITH: Patrick McLaughlin

Learning What We Like

A model of preference discovery.

WITH: Alex Tabarrok

How Monopolistic is iMessage?

To what extent does iMessage confer a monopolistic advantage to Apple? I estimate how much the service changes the demand elasticity for iPhones.